tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36250316.post8174620970143733260..comments2023-11-05T01:50:47.040-07:00Comments on Bike Commute Tips Blog: Bike commuting: Reaching the tipping point?Paul Dornhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03893190816290007375noreply@blogger.comBlogger5125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36250316.post-38195233999925041702008-06-10T17:21:00.000-07:002008-06-10T17:21:00.000-07:00China and India subsidize the gas so their "middle...China and India subsidize the gas so their "middle class" who are poor compared to Americans can afford it. <BR/><BR/>The car > bike tipping point will apply to those with a short enough commute. For those with long commutes where there is no choice but to drive (suburb to suburb) it's move closer, get a job closer, or get screwed. I have some coworkers with long commutes, one of which is in a race against the price at the pump to retire in 2 years. Jack up the prices and he loses. With a 50 mile drive, a bicycle is out of the question.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36250316.post-68395470902860939302008-06-09T14:28:00.000-07:002008-06-09T14:28:00.000-07:00jimci wrote:"The tipping point will be reached whe...jimci wrote:<BR/><BR/>"The tipping point will be reached when Tata in India and other asian carmakers start producing their 2,500$ cars. When these vehicles become reality, millions of people in Asia will trade their bikes for cars."<BR/><BR/>Kevin's comment:<BR/><BR/>If gas prices are low enough to allow millions of people in Asia to be able to afford to drive cars, then I predict that they will also be low enough to allow millions of people in North America to be able to afford to drive cars.<BR/><BR/>In other words, although Tata will certainly drive up demand and hence gas prices, rich North Americans will always be able to outbid poor Indians.Kevin Lovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13186428862833389619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36250316.post-63649517734303250932008-06-09T10:17:00.000-07:002008-06-09T10:17:00.000-07:00The tipping point will be reached when Tata in Ind...The tipping point will be reached when Tata in India and other asian carmakers start producing their 2,500$ cars. When these vehicles become reality, millions of people in Asia will trade their bikes for cars.<BR/><BR/>Each new car over there will mean one less car in America, because when they start sucking the world's gas reserves to refuel these cars, there just won't be any left for our car drivers, unless they are ready to pay the price. BTW, in 3 or 4 years, if not before, gas will hit 200$ a barrel.<BR/><BR/>People will have no choice but to either move closer to their workplace or get a job closer to home. "It's only a 30 minutes drive" will become "it's only a 30 minutes ride".<BR/><BR/>BTW, if you can read French, here is an interesting text: http://tinyurl.com/4vrc55Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36250316.post-80382459604267443042008-06-09T09:27:00.000-07:002008-06-09T09:27:00.000-07:00In my opinion, the tipping point will be a functio...In my opinion, the tipping point will be a function of culture, not gasoline prices. After all, the rate of bicycle commuting in Canada is three times that in the USA, in spite of similar geography and gasoline prices.<BR/><BR/>John Pucher writes about this at:<BR/><BR/>http://policy.rutgers.edu/faculty/pucher/TransportPolicyArticle.pdf<BR/><BR/>Another point is that gasoline prices in Great Britain are over $8.50 per gallon, and that hasn't been enough to break the car culture there.<BR/><BR/>So what's the tipping point? I predict that it will come when one or more of the following countries experiences political instability that distrupts its oil exports:<BR/><BR/>Saudi Arabia<BR/>Iran<BR/>Nigeria<BR/>Iraq<BR/>Russia<BR/><BR/>The general level of political instability and/or anti-Western feeling in each of these countries is such that I feel it safe to predict one or more will experience a distruption in its oil exports. Particularly Saudi Arabia, which supplies one third of the world's oil exports - and is a highly unstable anti-democratic government with a powerful Islamic Fundamentalist opposition that really wants to overthrow it.<BR/><BR/>Yes, its about oil addiction. And there won't be any change until the addict can't get his fix because the pusher stops selling.Kevin Lovehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13186428862833389619noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-36250316.post-46540688514648659952008-06-09T07:57:00.000-07:002008-06-09T07:57:00.000-07:00There was an article in today's NY Times, talking ...There was <A HREF="http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/business/09gas.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin" REL="nofollow">an article in today's NY Times</A>, talking about how poor workers in places like Mississippi are getting hammered by fuel costs.<BR/><BR/>I don't know that bicycles yet have a lot to offer them; they've got long commutes, often night shifts, and it's nasty hot.dr2chasehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16320828055999939449noreply@blogger.com